The Evolution of Early Warning Systems: Improving Academic and Social-Emotional Outcomes in Florida

By Aaron Feuer, CEO, Panorama Education

The idea of using early warning systems (EWS) to identify at-risk students isn’t new to most Florida school leaders. Traditionally, early warning systems combine the “ABCs” of student data—attendance, behavior, and coursework—to help educators and administrators spot students who are off track for graduation.

As of the 2014-15 academic year, half of all public high schools had implemented an early warning system to identify and support struggling students. And for good reason—research offers strong evidence that an EWS is effective in preventing dropouts. Experts like Dr. Robert Balfanz of the Everyone Graduates Center at Johns Hopkins University have provided empirical evidence that more than 50 percent of high school dropouts can be identified in the eighth grade using early warning indicators.

Research from the Everyone Graduates Center at Johns Hopkins University shows that the “ABCs” are accurate indicators of student success in school. 

Today, Florida schools and districts are using early warning systems as a strategy to prevent dropouts and increase graduation rates. Yet the role of K-12 data systems is expanding; in our work with hundreds of districts at Panorama Education, we’re seeing school and district leaders use early warning indicators to address key challenges like student mental health and wellness, social-emotional learning (SEL), chronic absenteeism, college-career readiness, and disproportionate discipline.

Educators are moving beyond high-stakes testing and dropout prevention toward a more holistic vision of how students are doing—and it’s critical for early warning systems to evolve with this vision. If we are to truly support the needs of each and every student, we need to invest in modern data systems and strategies for using early warning indicators.

Here are three ways Florida educators can promote student success across academics and social-emotional learning using early warning systems:

1. Go beyond coursework, behavior, and attendance (ABC’s) to create a comprehensive picture of student success and college-career readiness.

While the “ABCs” of student data are no doubt an important foundation, schools and districts are increasingly looking at social-emotional learning (SEL), citizenship, profile of a graduate, student interests, and project-based learning as leading indicators of student development.

Social-emotional learning can be a key early warning indicator alongside coursework,

attendance, and behavior data.

Research from one Nevada district, which serves 60,000 students, found a strong link between student’s self-reported SEL competencies and their level of risk for being off-track for graduation. Now, the district is working to integrate SEL data into their early warning “risk scores” so that educators can consider students’ social-emotional skills—including self-management and social awareness—alongside other at-risk indicators.

Combining this data can help educators better connect the dots; for instance, a student may be chronically absent or at risk of dropping out because he or she hasn’t formed strong relationships with adults and peers in the building. This is key information that can be used to take action.

2. Move to weekly or daily progress monitoring with real-time early warning data.

Think about the technology we use in our daily lives. From counting steps on a Fitbit to tracking an Uber in real time as it arrives, we expect to have the latest data at our fingertips at all times.

In the same way, educators should have on-demand access to student-level data and reports. Instead of waiting for data to refresh quarterly or at the end of the semester—at which point it’s often too late to provide necessary supports for off-track students—educators should get daily or weekly alerts on the students in their classroom so they can take action in the moment.

When used consistently, early warning indicators can be a powerful way to diagnose issues before they escalate into more intensive Tier 2 or 3 cases. We have to shift our mindset from being reactive to proactive.  

3. Take action to support at-risk students through support planning and intervention tracking.

The focus of using an early warning system shouldn’t be to predict which students are going to drop out. The focus should be identifying where each student is on track or off track for their next milestone toward graduation—and then allocating significant time and effort toward interventions and support planning. This could mean getting a “B” student on track for AP courses as much as changing the trajectory for a student who’s at risk of failing required courses.

Tools for support planning should be integrated into your district’s early warning system

so that educators can quickly take action to support at-risk students.

At one suburban district that partners with Panorama, for example, support planning and intervention tracking are central to their EWS strategy. The district uses an early warning system to monitor “on track for graduation” indicators across attendance, behavior, and coursework, giving educators a positive, strengths-based look at every student’s opportunities for growth.

With the on-demand data dashboards, school teams can spend time planning interventions based on the school-wide and student-level trends they’re seeing. The principal, teachers, and counselors meet monthly to review the data and discuss supports for students who are declining in one or more key areas.       

“Early warning systems are a great tool to use to keep our focus on our neediest students, but the systems don’t run themselves,” said a middle school principal in the district. “Dedicated leaders, teachers, and advocates are needed at the school level to translate the research and data into daily practices to help our students.”

As the needs of our students change, the definition of “student success” has, rightfully, come to mean more than walking across the stage with a diploma. Early warning indicators can play an important role in fulfilling the goal that every student in Florida is ready for success beyond the classroom.

To learn more strategies and best practices for using early warning systems, download Panorama’s guide: “5 Ways School Districts Use Early Warning Indicators to Promote Student Success.”

About Panorama Education

Panorama Education partners with K-12 schools and districts across the country to collect and analyze data about social-emotional learning, school climate, family engagement, and more. With research-backed surveys and a leading technology platform, Panorama helps educators act on data and improve student outcomes. Panorama supports more than 7 million students in 8,500 schools across 46 states. To learn more, visit www.panoramaed.com.